SF3034 Epidemic Control and Modelling Syllabus:
SF3034 Epidemic Control and Modelling Syllabus – Anna University Regulation 2021
COURSE OBJECTIVES:
1. Provides fundamental understanding of epidemics
2. Introduce the mathematical concepts and modeling of epidemic spread
3. Introduce the concepts for forecasting and of epidemic spread
4. Provides the methodology of epidemic management and control
5. Aware in Model Validation in Epidemic
UNIT I BASIC UNDERSTANDING OF EPIDEMIC
Definitions of epidemic and its outbreak, Severity of epidemic, environmental condition, host population characteristics, socio-cultural aspects. Types of epidemics sources (point, area, continuous), methods of propagation (contact based, vector based) Investigation, control and prevention, Management strategies, Epidemic Curve, Incubation period and its use, host population characteristics, socio-cultural aspects
UNIT II MATHEMATICAL MODELLING OF EPIDEMIC
General introduction to mathematical concepts and main classes of epidemic models (population vs individual based; deterministic vs stochastic, spatial models, Basic concepts and ideas of modelling: (i) presentation of main classes of epidemic models (population vs individual based, deterministic vs stochastic, spatial models), (ii) construction of SIR-like models with various structures. Systems of governing differential Equations, parameterization, simple numerical methods.
UNIT III FORECASTING AND EARLY WARNING OF EPIDEMICS
Mathematical modelling for the preparedness against unnaturally-born outbreaks, useof modeling, inclusion of parameters representing preventive and control measures, interventions evaluation. Complex systems, Phenomenological, Mechanistic and dynamical models, Infectious disease dynamics, Reproductive number R and its estimation, Systems of governing differential Equations, parameterization, simple numerical methods, Historical study of incidences and prevalence rates, disease specific, age and sex specific morbidity and mortality rates, past history analysis
UNIT IV EPIDEMIC CONTROL AND MANAGEMENT
Decision-making tools in public health in general and in planning mitigation strategies inclusion of parameters representing preventive and control measures, interventions evaluation.
UNIT V MODEL VALIDATION AND CASE STUDIES
Case studies and examples of epidemic models Validation, epidemic (spread, early warning, forecasting) models, Indian case studies – SARS-Covid 19 and small pox- epidemic modelling experiences
TOTAL: 45 PERIODS
COURSE OUTCOMES:
Students able to
CO1 Acquire basic understanding of epidemic
CO2Critically read and analyze research articles featuring modeling-based epidemiological studies
CO3 Provide the general ideas for constructing and analyzing simple models of epidemic spread and control
CO4 Interpret models outputs as information that help guide public health decision making
CO5 Provided basic understanding of model validation and case study Methodology
REFERENCES:
1. Interdisciplinary Public Health Reasoning and Epidemic Modelling: The Case of Black Death,Dr. George Christakos.et.al, Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg, Year: 2005
2. An introduction to infectious disease modeling by Emilia Vynnycky and Richard White,
3. Modeling to inform infectious disease control, Becker, Niels G.,CRC Press LLC, Year: 2015.
4. Modeling the transmission and prevention of infectious disease,Hurst, Christon J,SpringerVerlag,2017
5. Charting the Next Pandemic: Modeling Infectious Disease Spreading in the Data Science Age, SpringerYear: 2019